Friday, 15 January 2010 18:52
2010 is going to be a dramatic year for the security industry. Vendors and security professionals should prepare for a sea change. Here are my predictions for the year.
1. Crowd sourced Denial of Service attacks will be used against websites of US candidates in US elections. The attacks against Iranian web sites during June 2009 educated a lot of Twitter users on how to take down web sites of people they disagree with. Simple page refreshes on a candidate’s web site are enough to bring it down. Candidates should consider hosting their sites on robust platforms that can take the loads.
2. Despite efforts of the new Cybersecurity Coordinator in the White House the US Federal Government will continue to experience loss of data to cyber spies.
3. The security industry will experience a record number of mergers and acquisitions.
4. Cisco and Juniper will each acquire a UTM vendor. Despite being included in IDC’s rankings of UTM vendors, Cisco and Juniper do not have true UTM solutions. Fortinet’s IPO in 2009 has highlighted that there is indeed a UTM market and Cisco and Juniper are missing out on the fastest growing segment of network security. Possible candidates for acquisition could be Watchguard, Sonicwall, Astaro, Cyberoam, NetASQ, Ahn Labs, and Clavister.
5. The biggest change to the security industry is going to come from large vendors getting into the space. The largest IT company in the world, HP, is in the process of acquiring 3Com and will probably complete that acquisition in the first half of 2010. Public announcements of the acquisition did not give much weight to the H3C and Tippingpoint components of an otherwise stodgy networking company. Once HP realizes the security portfolio they have acquired there could be significant disruption in the firewall and security appliance industry. Lockheed Martin has already announced that cyber security will be one of the main focuses of their acquisition strategy in 2010 and I believe Northrup Grumman, IBM, Raytheon, L3 and other defense contractors will also make security acquisitions. Expect some familiar names in the IT security space to become part of large defense contractors.
6. Around the world countries will announce new cyber security initiatives as the barrage of espionage, DDoS, and cyber crime continues to hamper their industry, communications, and banking infrastructure.
In the ten years that I have covered the security industry as an analyst, 2010 is going to bring the biggest changes to an industry that has always been chaotic.